Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 64.21%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 16.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a Chelsea win it was 1-2 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
0.56) 
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