SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 41.62%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 0-1 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Arsenal |
41.62% ( 0.14) | 25.9% ( -0.04) | 32.48% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 53.82% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.62% ( 0.13) | 50.38% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.68% ( 0.12) | 72.32% ( -0.11) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.02% ( 0.13) | 23.98% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.78% ( 0.18) | 58.22% ( -0.18) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.79% ( 0) | 29.21% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.84% | 65.16% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Arsenal |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.91% Total : 41.62% | 1-1 @ 12.3% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 2.52% Total : 32.48% |
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