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Premier League | Gameweek 28
Mar 19, 2023 at 2pm UK
Emirates Stadium
CP

Arsenal
4 - 1
Crystal Palace

Martinelli (28'), Saka (43', 74'), Xhaka (55')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Schlupp (63')
Tomkins (59')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace
Wednesday, March 15 at 7.30pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 77.6%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 7.93%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.78%) and 1-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.88%), while for a Crystal Palace win it was 0-1 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
ArsenalDrawCrystal Palace
77.6% (0.12400000000001 0.12) 14.48% (-0.061 -0.06) 7.93% (-0.0639 -0.06)
Both teams to score 46.22% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.09% (0.055 0.05)36.91% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.91% (0.060000000000002 0.06)59.1% (-0.059000000000005 -0.06)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.25% (0.037999999999997 0.04)7.76% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.42% (0.099000000000004 0.1)27.58% (-0.1 -0.1)
Crystal Palace Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.1% (-0.118 -0.12)49.9% (0.116 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.42% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)84.59% (0.081999999999994 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Arsenal 77.59%
    Crystal Palace 7.93%
    Draw 14.48%
ArsenalDrawCrystal Palace
2-0 @ 12.64% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 10.78% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
1-0 @ 9.89% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.79% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-1 @ 7.49% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 6.89% (0.036 0.04)
4-1 @ 4.79% (0.008 0.01)
5-0 @ 3.52% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.61% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.45% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.67% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
6-0 @ 1.5% (0.014 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.04% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 77.59%
1-1 @ 6.88% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.87% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.06% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 14.48%
0-1 @ 2.69% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-2 @ 2.39% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-2 @ 0.94% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 7.93%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Arsenal 1-1 Sporting Lisbon (3-5 pen.)
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Fulham 0-3 Arsenal
Sunday, March 12 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-2 Arsenal
Thursday, March 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 4-0 Everton
Wednesday, March 1 at 7.45pm in Premier League
Last Game: Leicester 0-1 Arsenal
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brighton 1-0 Crystal Palace
Wednesday, March 15 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 0-1 Man City
Saturday, March 11 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-0 Crystal Palace
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 0-0 Liverpool
Saturday, February 25 at 7.45pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brentford 1-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, February 18 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton
Saturday, February 11 at 3pm in Premier League


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