Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 61.13%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 16.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
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