Premier League | Gameweek 28

Mar 14, 2021 at 4.30pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
2 - 1
Spurs

Odegaard (44'), Lacazette (64' pen.)
Xhaka (82')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Lamela (33')
Reguilon (40'), Sanchez (63'), Lamela (69')
Lamela (76')

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Bukayo Saka suffers hamstring injury

A look at Erik Lamela's eventful North London derby

Aubameyang dropped from North London derby for disciplinary reasons

Son suffers hamstring injury in North London derby

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Tottenham Hotspur
32.93%	24.49%	42.58%

Both teams to score 58.78%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56%

44%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.61%

66.39%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.19%

25.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.23%

60.77%

Tottenham Hotspur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.23%

20.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.58%

53.42%

Score Analysis

Arsenal 32.93%

Tottenham Hotspur 42.58%

Draw 24.49%

Arsenal	Draw	Tottenham Hotspur
2-1 @ 7.73% 1-0 @ 7.26% 2-0 @ 4.92% 3-1 @ 3.49% 3-2 @ 2.74% 3-0 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 1.18% 4-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.47% Total : 32.93%	1-1 @ 11.41% 2-2 @ 6.07% 0-0 @ 5.36% 3-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.49%	1-2 @ 8.97% 0-1 @ 8.43% 0-2 @ 6.62% 1-3 @ 4.7% 0-3 @ 3.47% 2-3 @ 3.18% 1-4 @ 1.85% 0-4 @ 1.36% 2-4 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.76% Total : 42.58%