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Premier League | Gameweek 17
Mar 13, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Vitality Stadium
LT

Bournemouth
4 - 3
Luton

Solanke (50'), Zabarnyi (62'), Semenyo (64', 83')
Smith (69')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Chong (9'), Ogbene (31'), Barkley (45+1')
Clark (30'), Ogbene (66')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 57.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.

Result
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
57.33% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03) 21.57% (0.038 0.04) 21.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 58.25% (-0.131 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.1% (-0.172 -0.17)39.9% (0.178 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.74% (-0.17899999999999 -0.18)62.26% (0.185 0.19)
Bournemouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.27% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)13.73% (0.071 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.01% (-0.136 -0.14)41% (0.142 0.14)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.52% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)32.48% (0.103 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.99% (-0.11 -0.11)69.01% (0.116 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Bournemouth 57.33%
    Luton Town 21.1%
    Draw 21.57%
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.86% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 8.79% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.54% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.82% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-2 @ 3.68% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.25% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.89% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.83% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.29% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.15% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 57.33%
1-1 @ 9.96% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.56% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.46% (0.037 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 21.57%
1-2 @ 5.6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.02% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.82% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 21.1%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Bournemouth 2-2 Sheff Utd
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth
Sunday, March 3 at 1pm in Premier League
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Leicester
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.30pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Man City
Saturday, February 24 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
Saturday, February 17 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Fulham 3-1 Bournemouth
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 1-1 Luton
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 2-3 Aston Villa
Saturday, March 2 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 2-6 Man City
Tuesday, February 27 at 8pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Liverpool 4-1 Luton
Wednesday, February 21 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 1-2 Man Utd
Sunday, February 18 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 1-3 Sheff Utd
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in Premier League


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