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FA Cup | Fifth Round
Feb 27, 2024 at 8pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
MC

Luton
2 - 6
Man City

Clark (45', 52')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Haaland (3', 18', 40', 55', 58'), Kovacic (72')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Liverpool 4-1 Luton
Wednesday, February 21 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Man City
Saturday, February 24 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 14.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.98%) and 1-3 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.6%), while for a Luton Town win it was 2-1 (4%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Luton TownDrawManchester City
14.13% (-1.143 -1.14) 17.18% (-0.176 -0.18) 68.69% (1.317 1.32)
Both teams to score 59.65% (-2.523 -2.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.62% (-1.773 -1.77)31.37% (1.77 1.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.17% (-2.12 -2.12)52.83% (2.117 2.12)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.06% (-2.622 -2.62)34.93% (2.618 2.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.32% (-2.859 -2.86)71.67% (2.855 2.86)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.68% (-0.18000000000001 -0.18)8.32% (0.176 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
71% (-0.44499999999999 -0.44)28.99% (0.439 0.44)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 14.13%
    Manchester City 68.69%
    Draw 17.18%
Luton TownDrawManchester City
2-1 @ 4% (-0.214 -0.21)
1-0 @ 3.06% (0.084 0.08)
3-2 @ 1.74% (-0.246 -0.25)
2-0 @ 1.61% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-1 @ 1.4% (-0.184 -0.18)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 14.13%
1-1 @ 7.6% (0.145 0.15)
2-2 @ 4.97% (-0.311 -0.31)
0-0 @ 2.91% (0.275 0.28)
3-3 @ 1.44% (-0.219 -0.22)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 17.18%
1-2 @ 9.45% (0.101 0.1)
0-2 @ 8.98% (0.71 0.71)
1-3 @ 7.83% (0.017 0.02)
0-3 @ 7.45% (0.528 0.53)
0-1 @ 7.22% (0.627 0.63)
1-4 @ 4.87% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-4 @ 4.63% (0.291 0.29)
2-3 @ 4.12% (-0.296 -0.3)
2-4 @ 2.56% (-0.208 -0.21)
1-5 @ 2.42% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-5 @ 2.3% (0.126 0.13)
2-5 @ 1.27% (-0.115 -0.12)
1-6 @ 1% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-6 @ 0.96% (0.045 0.04)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 68.69%

Read more!
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Form Guide
Last Game: Liverpool 4-1 Luton
Wednesday, February 21 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 1-2 Man Utd
Sunday, February 18 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 1-3 Sheff Utd
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 4-4 Luton
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 4-0 Brighton
Tuesday, January 30 at 7.45pm in Premier League
Last Game: Everton 1-2 Luton
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Man City
Saturday, February 24 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 1-0 Brentford
Tuesday, February 20 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 1-1 Chelsea
Saturday, February 17 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Copenhagen 1-3 Man City
Tuesday, February 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man City 2-0 Everton
Saturday, February 10 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brentford 1-3 Man City
Monday, February 5 at 8pm in Premier League


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