SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 14.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.98%) and 1-3 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.6%), while for a Luton Town win it was 2-1 (4%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Manchester City |
14.13% ( -1.14) | 17.18% ( -0.18) | 68.69% ( 1.32) |
| Both teams to score 59.65% ( -2.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.62% ( -1.77) | 31.37% ( 1.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.17% ( -2.12) | 52.83% ( 2.12) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.06% ( -2.62) | 34.93% ( 2.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.32% ( -2.86) | 71.67% ( 2.86) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.68% ( -0.18) | 8.32% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71% ( -0.44) | 28.99% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 4% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.25)2-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.18)Other @ 2.32% Total : 14.13% | 1-1 @ 7.6% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.31)0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.28)3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.26% Total : 17.18% | 1-2 @ 9.45% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 8.98% ( 0.71)1-3 @ 7.83% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 7.45% ( 0.53)0-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.63)1-4 @ 4.87% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 4.63% ( 0.29)2-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.3)2-4 @ 2.56% ( -0.21)1-5 @ 2.42% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 2.3% ( 0.13)2-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.12)1-6 @ 1% ( -0.02)0-6 @ 0.96% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.61% Total : 68.69% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
