Chelsea
3 - 0
Aston Villa

Lukaku (15', 90+3'), Kovacic (49')
Alonso (61')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ramsey (8'), Mings (28'), McGinn (90'), Targett (90')

Build‑up

Saul Niguez reacts to 'unexpected' Chelsea debut

Thomas Tuchel hails Romelu Lukaku as the difference as Chelsea beat Aston Villa

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 54.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 21.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.

Result
Chelsea	Draw	Aston Villa
54.42%	24.52%	21.05%

Both teams to score 48.66%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.41%

52.58%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.76%

74.24%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.75%

19.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.03%

50.96%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.26%

39.74%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.59%

76.41%

Score Analysis

Chelsea 54.42%

Aston Villa 21.05%

Draw 24.52%

Chelsea	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 12.6% 2-0 @ 10.38% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 5.7% 3-1 @ 5.26% 3-2 @ 2.43% 4-0 @ 2.35% 4-1 @ 2.17% 4-2 @ 1% Other @ 2.94% Total : 54.42%	1-1 @ 11.63% 0-0 @ 7.65% 2-2 @ 4.42% Other @ 0.82% Total : 24.52%	0-1 @ 7.06% 1-2 @ 5.37% 0-2 @ 3.26% 1-3 @ 1.65% 2-3 @ 1.36% 0-3 @ 1% Other @ 1.35% Total : 21.05%