SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 52.76%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 26.24% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.45%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
52.76% ( 0.09) | 21% ( -0.04) | 26.24% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 67.02% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.72% ( 0.15) | 31.27% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.28% ( 0.18) | 52.71% ( -0.18) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.77% ( 0.08) | 12.22% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.09% ( 0.16) | 37.9% ( -0.16) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.35% ( 0.05) | 23.64% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.25% ( 0.07) | 57.74% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.47% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.71% Total : 52.76% | 1-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.64% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.89% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.48% Total : 21% | 1-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0)0-2 @ 3% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.84% Total : 26.24% |
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