Both sides head into this fixture full of confidence after their respective performances last time out. However, we feel that these are two evenly-matched sides, and a low-scoring draw in a competitive fixture feels like the most likely outcome.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 32.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 1-0 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
-0.4) 
0.12) 
