SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fulham win with a probability of 37.59%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fulham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fulham | Draw | Aston Villa |
37.59% ( -0.13) | 25.72% ( 0.05) | 36.69% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 55.19% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.05% ( -0.2) | 48.95% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.97% ( -0.18) | 71.03% ( 0.18) |
| Fulham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.54% ( -0.17) | 25.45% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.72% ( -0.23) | 60.28% ( 0.23) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.04% ( -0.04) | 25.96% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.03% ( -0.06) | 60.97% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fulham | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.19% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.82% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.56% Total : 37.59% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.22% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.7% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.25% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.46% Total : 36.69% |
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