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Premier League | Gameweek 11
Oct 16, 2022 at 2pm UK
Villa Park
CL

Aston Villa
0 - 2
Chelsea

 
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mount (6', 65')
Chilwell (33'), Koulibaly (61'), Mount (83')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Nott'm Forest 1-1 Aston Villa
Monday, October 10 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: AC Milan 0-2 Chelsea
Tuesday, October 11 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Aston Villa 1-2 Chelsea

Under pressure to deliver a victory which would buy him more time in the Villa dugout, we expect Villa to produce an attack-minded performance in order to repel Chelsea. Nevertheless, the Blues are clear favourites for a reason, and the visitors should do enough to edge this contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 19.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-0 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawChelsea
19.9% (-0.004999999999999 -0) 23.64% (-0.0039999999999978 -0) 56.46% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Both teams to score 49.62% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.54% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)50.45% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.62% (0.0089999999999968 0.01)72.38% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.27%39.72% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.6%76.4% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)
Chelsea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.31% (0.0049999999999955 0)17.68% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.68% (0.010000000000005 0.01)48.32% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 19.9%
    Chelsea 56.45%
    Draw 23.63%
Aston VillaDrawChelsea
1-0 @ 6.49% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-1 @ 5.19% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 2.99% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-1 @ 1.6%
3-2 @ 1.38%
3-0 @ 0.92% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.34%
Total : 19.9%
1-1 @ 11.23%
0-0 @ 7.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 4.49%
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 23.63%
0-1 @ 12.17%
0-2 @ 10.54%
1-2 @ 9.73%
0-3 @ 6.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 5.62% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-4 @ 2.64% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-4 @ 2.44% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.12% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-5 @ 0.91% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 56.45%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 1-1 Aston Villa
Monday, October 10 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Leeds 0-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, October 2 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-0 Southampton
Friday, September 16 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-1 Man City
Saturday, September 3 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 2-1 Aston Villa
Wednesday, August 31 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 0-1 West Ham
Sunday, August 28 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: AC Milan 0-2 Chelsea
Tuesday, October 11 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Chelsea 3-0 Wolves
Saturday, October 8 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Chelsea 3-0 AC Milan
Wednesday, October 5 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 1-2 Chelsea
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Chelsea 1-1 Salzburg
Wednesday, September 14 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Chelsea
Tuesday, September 6 at 5.45pm in Champions League


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