SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 5 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Leicester City | 5 | -5 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 62.69%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 17.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.78%) and 0-1 (7.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.75%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 2-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Manchester City |
17.84% ( 2.69) | 19.47% ( 0.84) | 62.69% ( -3.53) |
| Both teams to score 59.96% ( 3.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.99% ( 1.28) | 35.01% ( -1.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43% ( 1.41) | 57% ( -1.41) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.15% ( 3.95) | 32.85% ( -3.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.58% ( 4.17) | 69.42% ( -4.17) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.29% ( -0.52) | 10.71% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.36% ( -1.17) | 34.64% ( 1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.59) 1-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.31)3-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.39)3-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.38)Other @ 3.05% Total : 17.84% | 1-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.55)0-0 @ 3.52% ( -0.23)3-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.26)Other @ 0.26% Total : 19.47% | 1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.78% ( -1)0-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.7)1-3 @ 7.28% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 6.54% ( -0.91)1-4 @ 4.06% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 4.05% ( 0.33)0-4 @ 3.65% ( -0.6)2-4 @ 2.26% ( 0.14)1-5 @ 1.82% ( -0.12)0-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.31)2-5 @ 1.01% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.97% Total : 62.69% |
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