SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 8 | 10 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Everton | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | West Ham United | 4 | -4 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 59.18%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 18.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Arsenal in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Arsenal.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Aston Villa |
59.18% ( -0.07) | 21.89% ( 0.01) | 18.93% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 53.49% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.52% ( 0.04) | 44.48% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.15% ( 0.04) | 66.85% ( -0.04) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.33% ( -0.01) | 14.67% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.17% ( -0.02) | 42.83% ( 0.02) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.68% ( 0.09) | 37.32% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.9% ( 0.09) | 74.1% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.94% 3-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.36% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.1% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.05% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 2.69% Total : 59.17% | 1-1 @ 10.35% 0-0 @ 5.48% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.89% | 0-1 @ 5.4% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.11% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 18.93% |
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