SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 69.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Fulham had a probability of 13.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Fulham win it was 1-2 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Fulham |
69.23% ( 0.09) | 17.64% ( -0.03) | 13.14% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 54.78% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.83% ( -0.01) | 36.17% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.72% ( -0.01) | 58.28% ( 0.02) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.56% ( 0.02) | 9.44% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.28% ( 0.05) | 31.72% ( -0.04) |
| Fulham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.49% ( -0.09) | 39.51% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.8% ( -0.09) | 76.2% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Fulham |
| 2-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0)1-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 7.59% ( 0)4-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.48% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.11% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0)5-2 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 4.35% Total : 69.22% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.73% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 17.64% | 1-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 3.46% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.71% Total : 13.14% |
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