Despite claiming 1-0 victories last season, the low-scoring encounters were anomalies in this fixture that had seen both sides score in the previous six. Moreirense and Arouca should return to the past pattern on Sunday, and we are backing the hosts to notch consecutive wins to take advantage of playing in front of their supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
0.24) 
-0.31) 
