SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 39.14%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Arouca |
39.14% ( -0.41) | 25.7% ( 0.11) | 35.15% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 55.14% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.04% ( -0.43) | 48.95% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.96% ( -0.39) | 71.04% ( 0.39) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.38% ( -0.41) | 24.61% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.88% ( -0.57) | 59.12% ( 0.58) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.15% ( -0.03) | 26.85% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.84% ( -0.04) | 62.15% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.82% Total : 39.15% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.7% | 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 8.01% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 3.11% Total : 35.15% |
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