SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.56%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for AVS had a probability of 13.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.84%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for an AVS win it was 1-0 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AVS | Draw | Porto |
13.55% ( 0.02) | 20.89% ( 0.01) | 65.56% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 44.95% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.22% ( 0.03) | 49.78% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.22% ( 0.02) | 71.78% ( -0.02) |
| AVS Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.51% ( 0.05) | 47.49% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.14% ( 0.04) | 82.85% ( -0.03) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.6% ( 0) | 14.39% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.71% ( 0) | 42.29% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| AVS | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 5.09% ( 0) 2-1 @ 3.67% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 1.9% ( 0)3-1 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 13.55% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( 0) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.56% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.63% Total : 20.89% | 0-1 @ 13.25% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 12.84% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 9.56% ( 0)0-3 @ 8.3% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.18% ( 0)0-4 @ 4.02% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.99% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.3% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.56% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.16% 2-4 @ 1.12% ( 0)Other @ 2.28% Total : 65.56% |
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