SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.83%. A draw had a probability of 12.6% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 6.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.31%) and 1-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.99%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Boavista |
80.83% ( 0.31) | 12.65% ( -0.19) | 6.52% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 45.91% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.71% ( 0.41) | 33.29% ( -0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.94% ( 0.47) | 55.05% ( -0.47) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.68% ( 0.14) | 6.32% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.24% ( 0.4) | 23.76% ( -0.4) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.01% ( -0.06) | 50.99% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.67% ( -0.04) | 85.33% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Boavista |
| 2-0 @ 12.28% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 7.81% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 5.26% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.57% 6-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.02)6-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.51% Total : 80.83% | 1-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.65% Total : 12.65% | 0-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.34% Total : 6.52% |
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