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A
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18
Jan 31, 2023 at 9.15pm UK
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
B

Arouca
0 - 3
Benfica


Opoku (46'), Soro (73'), Ruiz (76')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mario (25', 54'), Musa (80')
Silva (49')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Arouca 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, January 24 at 7.45pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 0-2 Benfica
Thursday, January 26 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Arouca 0-2 Benfica

Currently firing on all cylinders, Benfica have stamped their name as firm title contenders and will be looking to maintain their fine run of form. Looking at past results in this fixture, we are backing As Aguias to come out on top once again and end Arouca's unbeaten run in the league. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.21%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 6.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.25%) and 0-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.17%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (2.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
AroucaDrawBenfica
6.77% (0.17 0.17) 13.02% (0.135 0.14) 80.21% (-0.30500000000001 -0.31)
Both teams to score 45.8% (0.45999999999999 0.46)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.82% (0.048000000000002 0.05)34.18% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.93% (0.055 0.05)56.06% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.05% (0.519 0.52)50.95% (-0.518 -0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.69% (0.347 0.35)85.31% (-0.346 -0.35)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.38% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)6.62% (0.0511 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
75.41% (-0.13499999999999 -0.13)24.59% (0.137 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Arouca 6.77%
    Benfica 80.21%
    Draw 13.02%
AroucaDrawBenfica
1-0 @ 2.27% (0.029 0.03)
2-1 @ 2.08% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 6.77%
1-1 @ 6.17% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 3.37% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.83% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 13.02%
0-2 @ 12.43% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-3 @ 11.25% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-1 @ 9.16% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
1-2 @ 8.38% (0.058 0.06)
0-4 @ 7.64% (-0.106 -0.11)
1-3 @ 7.59% (0.032 0.03)
1-4 @ 5.15% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-5 @ 4.15% (-0.069 -0.07)
1-5 @ 2.8% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.56% (0.049 0.05)
0-6 @ 1.88% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.74% (0.028 0.03)
1-6 @ 1.27% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-5 @ 0.94% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 80.21%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Arouca 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, January 24 at 7.45pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Arouca 4-0 Portimonense
Friday, January 20 at 7pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Chaves 1-1 Arouca
Sunday, January 15 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 4-0 Arouca
Wednesday, January 11 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Arouca 2-0 Estoril
Saturday, January 7 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 5-1 Arouca
Wednesday, December 28 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 0-2 Benfica
Thursday, January 26 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Santa Clara 0-3 Benfica
Saturday, January 21 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Benfica 2-2 Sporting Lisbon
Sunday, January 15 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Varzim 0-2 Benfica
Tuesday, January 10 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Benfica 1-0 Portimonense
Friday, January 6 at 7pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 3-0 Benfica
Friday, December 30 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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