SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.74%. A draw had a probability of 13.8% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 8.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.34%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-2 (2.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
77.74% ( 0) | 13.76% ( -0.02) | 8.51% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.38% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.24% ( 0.21) | 30.76% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.89% ( 0.25) | 52.1% ( -0.25) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.62% ( 0.04) | 6.37% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.08% ( 0.13) | 23.92% ( -0.13) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.95% ( 0.2) | 44.05% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.83% ( 0.17) | 80.17% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
| 2-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 8% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.04% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 6.34% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.04% Total : 13.76% | 1-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.69% Total : 8.51% |
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