SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 53.56%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
53.56% ( 1.33) | 21.98% ( 0.06) | 24.45% ( -1.39) |
| Both teams to score 61.34% ( -1.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.14% ( -1.66) | 37.86% ( 1.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.88% ( -1.8) | 60.12% ( 1.79) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.77% ( -0.15) | 14.23% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.03% ( -0.29) | 41.97% ( 0.29) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.52% ( -1.94) | 28.48% ( 1.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.75% ( -2.5) | 64.25% ( 2.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.57)2-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.52)3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.01% ( 0.31)3-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.18)4-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.14)4-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 1.2% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.45% Total : 53.56% | 1-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.24)0-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.32)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.21) 0-1 @ 5.09% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.45% Total : 24.45% |
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