With two of the division's lowest scorers on show, this looks likely to be a tight affair that could be decided by a single goal.
Neither team are in very good form and both would benefit hugely from a morale-boosting win, and the signs all point to that going the way of Casa Pia given Maritimo's terrible away record.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.56%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
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