With just two points separating the sides in the league table, Saturday's game should be a real cracker and Maritimo and Santa Clara continue their race to beat the drop. Given that Gomes's side will have the extra support of the home fans, we are backing them to do just enough to secure a slender victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.44%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (12.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.03) 
