Even though Santa Clara have found the back of the net in four of their last six games at the Sao Miguel, their tendency to concede means a low-scoring draw could be in the offing.
Gil Vicente have not scored in three consecutive road games, but that run should end on Saturday.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
1.14) 
-1.31) 
