While Pacos de Ferreira will be looking to end their dire run and get their campaign up and running, they take a trip to the bogey Estadio de Sao Miguel, where they have lost their last three visits. We are backing Santa Clara to continue their fine home run and claim all three points, heaping more misery on the struggling visitors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 55.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 18.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.76%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.36) 
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