Fresh off the back of picking up their first win of the season, Arouca will head into the weekend with renewed belief as they eye their first consecutive win since their promotion to the Primeira Liga two seasons ago. Os Acoreanos face a Arouca side who found it tough on the road and we predict that they will pick up their first win of the season, albeit by a slender margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 53.31%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 21.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
-0.48) 
0.3) 
