With just two points separating the sides in the league table, we anticipate a cagey affair at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca this weekend. Arouca and Vitoria de Guimaraes are evenly matched on paper and we predict that they will both take a cautious approach to the game and force a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 35.39%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 34.71% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (12.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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