Vitoria de Guimaraes will be happy to return to their home turf where they have won six of their last seven games across all competitions. We are backing the hosts to maintain this fine run and come away with all three points against a Casa Pia side who have failed to win three of their last four away games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 57.19%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 18.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (6.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.03) 
