Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 56.73%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.