Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.