Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 37.95%. A win for Baltika had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.81%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Baltika win was 0-1 (11.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
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