SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 49.22%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 26.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.6%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
26.02% ( -0.25) | 24.76% ( 0) | 49.22% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 53.55% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.1% ( -0.21) | 48.9% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.01% ( -0.19) | 70.99% ( 0.19) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.85% ( -0.31) | 33.15% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.25% ( -0.34) | 69.75% ( 0.35) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.1% ( 0.02) | 19.9% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.98% ( 0.03) | 52.02% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 7.28% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.43% Total : 26.02% | 1-1 @ 11.75% 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.75% | 0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 8.6% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 5.11% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.63% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.85% Total : 49.21% |
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