Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
