Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Falkirk win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 31.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Falkirk win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Greenock Morton win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Falkirk would win this match.
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