SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 61.61%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 16.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Kilmarnock win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hearts | Draw | Kilmarnock |
61.61% ( -0.06) | 21.57% ( 0.02) | 16.81% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 50.43% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.5% ( -0.01) | 46.5% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.22% ( -0.01) | 68.78% ( 0.01) |
| Hearts Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.43% ( -0.02) | 14.57% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.37% ( -0.04) | 42.62% ( 0.04) |
| Kilmarnock Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.02% ( 0.04) | 40.97% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.46% ( 0.04) | 77.53% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hearts | Draw | Kilmarnock |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.07% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.35% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.06% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.83% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.36% 5-0 @ 1.32% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 2.53% Total : 61.6% | 1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.94% Total : 21.56% | 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.36% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.31% ( 0)Other @ 1.86% Total : 16.81% |
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