There is not much to choose between these two teams in terms of quality, and we are expecting both legs to be incredibly tight, with penalties potentially ultimately being needed to separate them. Eibar will be hoping to secure a first-leg advantage, but we believe that Alaves will be able to secure a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 50.46%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 20.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.6%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.22) 
-0.73) 
