Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 36.77%. A win for Alcorcon had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.27%) and 1-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Alcorcon win was 1-0 (12.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.