Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.26%) and 2-1 (7.92%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.