Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 40.6%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Lugo win was 0-1 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
