Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 50.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 22.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.
