Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fuenlabrada win with a probability of 34.43%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 33.15% and a draw had a probability of 32.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fuenlabrada win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.9%) and 2-1 (6.27%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (14.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (15.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fuenlabrada would win this match.