Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 47.8%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 25.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.4%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Las Palmas in this match.
-0.49) 
0.06) 
