Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 35.85%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.11%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (12.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Leganes in this match.
-0.24) 
0.2) 
