Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 36.83%. A draw had a probability of 31.7% and a win for Leganes had a probability of 31.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.48%) and 2-1 (6.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.85%), while for a Leganes win it was 0-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lugo in this match.
0.16) 
-0.3) 
