SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 44.68%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 26.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.08%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malaga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malaga | Draw | Lugo |
44.68% ( -0.09) | 28.95% ( 0.01) | 26.37% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 42.1% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.19% ( 0.02) | 63.8% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.95% ( 0.01) | 83.04% ( -0.01) |
| Malaga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.42% ( -0.04) | 28.58% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.63% ( -0.05) | 64.37% ( 0.05) |
| Lugo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.95% ( 0.08) | 41.05% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.4% ( 0.07) | 77.6% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malaga | Draw | Lugo |
| 1-0 @ 14.69% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.19% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.42% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 1.53% Total : 44.68% | 1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.73% 2-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.49% Total : 28.94% | 0-1 @ 10.44% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 1.26% Total : 26.36% |
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