Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 41.07%. A draw had a probability of 30.3% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 28.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.47%) and 2-1 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.34%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ponferradina in this match.