Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 34.71%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 31.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.91%) and 2-1 (6.51%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malaga in this match.