Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.72%) and 2-1 (7.41%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (12.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.
