Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 37.9%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.49%) and 2-1 (7.44%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (12.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cartagena in this match.